A popular market narrative has it that the current contraction in demand at Big Law, combined with growth in demand at midsize firms, is evidence of price-sensitive clients shifting work from big firms to their smaller, lower-priced, brethren and, further, that this price-driven shifting is a long-established trend that will accelerate if Big Law continues to raise billing rates to drive revenue and profitability.

While this view has appeal to the many who’d like to see Big Law change its business model, it is inconsistent with the numbers and market history.

The Shift In Demand That Wasn’t

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