With dozens of estimates, analyses and opinions on the “cost” of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act, the debate can seem complicated and confusing. While critics claim it will increase the deficit by over $3 trillion, the fact is compared to current tax policy, this legislation will reduce the deficit by nearly $400 billion.
Republicans asked our nonpartisan scorekeeper to estimate the cost of the legislation based on a more realistic scenario—that Congress would not allow a $4 trillion tax hike on the American people. According to that more accurate estimate, the legislation cuts federal spending by over $1.5 trillion and reduces the deficit by roughly $400 billion. That number does not include this Administration’s pro-growth agenda, which the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) estimates will increase federal revenues by more than $4 trillion, totaling nearly $4.5 trillion in deficit reduction.
Opponents of President Trump’s agenda say the refusal to raise taxes on the American people by over $4 trillion will add to the deficit. This logic suggests that if we allowed the largest tax hike in history to go into effect, it would go toward paying down the national debt. Not once in my lifetime has a tax increase in Congress been used to pay down the deficit—it has always been used to increase government spending.
Idahoans intuitively understand that preventing a tax increase—simply maintaining existing tax rates—means the federal government will continue to collect...
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