In the first of a series of briefs examining Philadelphia’s fiscal future, The Pew Charitable Trusts looked at how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the city’s economy. The second brief presented four potential scenarios for Philadelphia’s economic performance over the next several years.
This third brief focuses on the impact that each of the four scenarios would have on the city’s operating budget. In the rosiest scenario, Philadelphia’s economy would generate 70,000 more jobs than in the grimmest. The presence or absence of these jobs—and the associated economic activity—translates into a cumulative difference of nearly $1.6 billion in local tax revenues through fiscal year 2026, a difference that means total revenues over that period would be either slightly higher than the city has projected in its 2022-26 five-year plan or significantly lower. (Dollar figures throughout this brief, including the tables, are rounded to the nearest million; percentage change calculations are based on the actual figures.)
The goal of this work, being done by Pew in partnership with the William Penn Foundation, is to inform the choices that await local policymakers as they consider what to do to help enhance equitable growth in Philadelphia and ensure the fiscal stability of city government.
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