Russian President Vladimir Putin has worked hard to convince the world that Ukraine’s defeat is inevitable when it is not. His biggest success has come not on the front line but in the battle of narratives. Since meeting with Putin in Alaska, Donald Trump has shifted from demanding an immediate ceasefire to pressuring Kyiv to hand over unoccupied territory to Moscow based on the false idea that Russia is bound to win. “They’re much bigger. They’re much stronger,” Trump has said, giving Russia the “upper hand” in Ukraine.
Putin’s narrative of inevitable Russian victory rests on false claims: Ukraine’s front line is on the verge of collapse; Russia will capture the territories it claims; Russia has the manpower and resources to sustain the war indefinitely; and Ukraine cannot defeat the Russian military. Invoking the Soviet Red Army’s crushing of the German Wehrmacht in World War II, the Kremlin wants us to think that today’s much smaller Russian military is an unstoppable steamroller destined to win.
This is more than propaganda. It is a system of cognitive warfare designed to shape Western leaders’ assumptions and push them toward decisions that benefit Russia and disadvantage Ukraine. Moscow aims to persuade its audience that the only sensible outcome is a final settlement on Russia’s terms. Surrendering to Russia, the steamroller narrative suggests, is humane because it would spare the lives of soldiers and civilians who would otherwise be crushed. Putin has effectively...
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