New Zealand’s ruling Labour Party lost a seat in a by-election, adding to signs that support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s administration is waning ahead of a nationwide vote next year.

The Hamilton West by-election was won by the main opposition National Party, provisional results showed Sunday. While voter turnout was low and the outcome is inconsequential for the balance power in the current parliament, it underscores a swing in sentiment away from Labour.

Ardern is facing an uphill battle to secure a third term in the 2023 general election, which is likely to be held toward the end of next year. The central bank is forecasting a recession starting in the second quarter as it aggressively raises interest rates to regain control of inflation, while opposition parties have been attacking the government over a recent spate of youth crime.

A 1News/Kantar poll published last week showed Labour falling 1 percentage point to 33% support, five points behind National on 38%. National’s likely coalition partner, the ACT Party, climbed two points to 11% support, which would give the pair a parliamentary majority if the results were replicated at the election.

It’s a rapid reversal of fortunes for Ardern, who stormed to a landslide victory just two years ago on the back of her early success at keeping Covid-19 out of the country. Now that the virus is here to stay, voters’ minds have turned to the state of the economy and law and order.

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