Following a well-trodden path, an anonymous source (claiming to be an IEBC whistle-blower) recently published a set of alternative results of the 2022 presidential general election, which was narrowly won by William Ruto (according to IEBC staff and a unanimous Supreme Court verdict).
These alleged results conveniently appeared just after IECB Chairman Chebukati has retired, so could no longer properly defend himself. They were then picked up by the opposition and trumpeted as evidence of fraud.
The differences between alleged whistle-blower results ("AWBRs" henceforth) and the 2017 fakes come from an anonymous source and not the Raila's camp.
The whistle blowers results are only at constituency level and that there were no polling station results therefore nothing can be verified or disproved explicitly by reference to posted 34A polling station forms.
More than half of the whistleblowers results match well with the official results.
The overall result claimed by the ABWRs is a 58% to 42% victory for Raila over Ruto, in contrast to the 49%-50% official result. So the difference is huge.
I compared result constituency-by-constituency between the two sets of results to look for differences.
After finding the results I determined what changed and how, then compared with other elections for the same constituency on the same day (particularly the MP results as they are a direct comparator) and also compare for plausibility with other results from the same county.
Findings...
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