Russia’s cyber-offensive last year was fast, furious—and underwhelming. In it, hackers conducted perhaps the largest ever assault on computer networks. Ukraine, well-prepared and supported by foreign tech companies and allies, parried many of these blows, keeping communications and crucial government services online against all expectations. But the cyberwar, like the physical one, is evolving.
Russian cyber-forces, portrayed as lumbering bumblers, have in fact adapted to circumstances, argues Dan Black, who served in NATO’s cyber-threat analysis branch until December and now works for Mandiant, a cyber-security firm within Google. During its offensive in eastern Ukraine between April and July, Russia expanded its cyber-operations in Poland and eastern Europe to collect intelligence on arms shipments to Ukraine. The GRU, Russia’s military-intelligence agency, began using more malware from criminal markets to augment fancier home-made tools.
In a paper for the IISS, a think-tank, Mr Black says Russian forces showed signs of “a more prepared and reinvigorated cyber-programme” from October, during Ukrainian offensives in the south and east. That included heightened cyber-attacks against energy, water and logistics targets in parallel with drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s power grid. This pointed to a co-ordinated strategy to ratchet up cross-domain pressure, he argues. A report published by Ukraine’s main cyber-security agency on March 8th showed that “critical” and “...
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