CNN —
Longtime Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow is calling it quits and will not stand for reelection in 2024.
At a minimum, her decision makes Democrats’ already difficult job of retaining Senate control in 2024 even harder. Senators caucusing with the party hold 23 of the 34 seats expected to be up for reelection. Seven of them represent states Trump won at least once. This includes Michigan.
Sen. Gary Peters – the last Democrat not named Stabenow to run for Senate in Michigan – won reelection by less than 2 points in 2020.
Stabenow likely would have made Democrats’ job easier had she opted to run again. After narrowly unseating Republican Sen. Spencer Abraham in 2000, she has won reelection by at least 5 points in three subsequent contests.
But Democrats now have a battle on the horizon in another state that flipped from Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden four years later. Beyond Michigan, Democrats face a messy situation in Arizona with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema becoming an independent.
With 51 senators now caucusing with Democrats, losses in Arizona and Michigan alone could be enough to flip the chamber to Republicans.
Yet, Republicans’ ability to flip Michigan will be highly dependent on two important questions.
First, what type of party do GOP primary voters want?
And second, will Republicans in key Great Lakes battleground states continue to outperform national results if Trump isn’t on the ballot?
In 2022, we saw GOP primary voters across the map select nominees who ended...
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