We’re almost six months from the 2022 midterm election, and Republicans have big dreams for their potential gains. President Biden’s approval rating is mired in the low 40s, and the GOP already holds a lead in generic ballot polling that history suggests could grow as the election nears. In the race for the Senate, this means that the GOP has a very good shot at gaining at least the one seat it needs to capture the evenly-divided Senate. As such, there’s an especially strong focus on the Republican Senate primaries, as the eventual nominees could be part of a new GOP majority following the November election.
We took a look at the Senate contests and broke down the high-profile races into three groups: First, the seven primaries in battleground states, where Republicans will try to either maintain control of competitive GOP-held seats or defeat Democratic incumbents. Second, the four red-state primaries for seats where Republican retirements have set the stage for contentious GOP nomination battles, if not necessarily competitive general elections. And lastly, the two races where incumbent Republican senators face a potentially serious primary challenger. In the table below are the 13 Republican Senate primaries that fall into these categories for the 2022 midterms — a list that could change going forward.
Republican primaries in battleground states
Of the seven battleground races in the Senate, the Pennsylvania Senate primary may be the most high profile for the GOP this...
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-13-most-important-republican-senate-...