The benefits of the landmark small-business relief program designed at the height of the pandemic mostly went to business owners rather than workers, a study from leading economists finds.
The study from authors including famed Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor David Autor, as well as several Federal Reserve economists, examined the $800 billion Paycheck Protection Program. It was circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and tapped into data from payrolls processor ADP.
The PPP initially was signed into law by President Donald Trump in April 2020, and President Joe Biden signed an extension in March 2021. Both the initial law and the extension were overwhelmingly bipartisan.
The far-reaching PPP ended up sending loans to approximately 93% of small businesses, in just two months. The end result, the authors estimate, is that the program preserved up to 3 million “job years” of employment at a cost of between $170,000 to $257,000 per job-year retained.
Put another way, between 23% to 34% of PPP dollars went directly to workers who otherwise would have lost jobs, the study found. The program also was highly regressive, with three-quarters of PPP funds accruing to the top quintile of households.
The authors said PPP did help keep the lights on at establishments that otherwise would have shut, though they don’t know whether that was a permanent or temporary impact. PPP loans helped reduce employment losses due to small-firm closures by...
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