WPC analysis finds inflated success rates helped propel the diversion program into federal law and secure taxpayer funding nationwide

What is the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion program (LEAD)?
LEAD is a criminal justice reform model active in over 20 states designed to divert those who use drugs and commit crimes away from arrests and jail time and toward social services, while not requiring participation from individuals beyond an initial intake and information release.

What happened?

• Since 2015, LEAD promoters have used false data to market inflated success rates, claiming 58% reductions in criminal reoffending—more than double what the study suggests.
• The study’s smaller numbers are mixed and uncertain, weakened by design flaws and demonstrating no significant differences between LEAD and non-LEAD groups for metrics like ‘total charges’ and ‘street arrests’.
• Lawmakers were misled and false numbers directly influenced legislation.
• Using the false statistics, LEAD secured nearly $100 million in federal appropriations and many millions more in state and local taxpayer dollars.

SEATTLE – False information led Congress and others to appropriate tens of millions of dollars in dozens of cities on the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD) model, a series of programs designed to reduce arrests for people who use drugs and commit crimes. For more than a decade, LEAD gained national popularity while marketing false claims of large crime reductions.

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