(*This commentary was updated at 11:34 a.m. on Monday, 11/7/22 to adjust projections for the number of votes that Pennsylvania Democrats may receive from mail-in ballots.)
Mail-in voting has become a vulnerable target within Pennsylvania’s election integrity. The risk is not voter fraud: the safeguards in place to ensure that only legal voters vote and every vote is counted have never been stronger.
Yet false fraud claims have polarized mail-in ballot use so intensely that disqualifying mail-in votes is now a sure-fire way to disqualify Democratic voters—not just in heavily Democratic areas, but in every county in the state.
Not only does that ensure courtroom battles over the minutiae of election administration. It heightens potential pressure on local officials to disregard court guidance. And that prospect itself incentivizes more false claims about election fraud to be pushed out toward these local leaders and their constituents.
On Tuesday, American voters can point the world toward rejection of authoritarian rule.
That’s exactly what former President Donald Trump did in public tweets and private phone calls in 2020. And in fact, this very summer the counties of Berks, Lancaster, and Fayette refused to certify primary election results including undated mail-ins, refusing to recognize the authority of court rulings then in place.
Only 13 percent of Pennsylvania Republicans describe themselves as “very confident” that state and local officials will run a free and fair...
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