When America woke up on the morning of Jan. 7, 2021, two things seemed clear. The first was that Joe Biden would, as the Constitution dictated, be sworn in on the newly-damaged stage set up outside the Capitol. The second was that the riot at that building on the previous day would be a permanent stain on Donald Trump’s legacy.
Less clear was how large that stain would be. Would even his ever-loyal base remain supportive of him politically? Would Republican leaders disavow him or hold him to account? Was the devolution of Trumpism into literal violence, violence in service to a lie about election fraud, something that the president would not be able to overcome?
In short order, these questions were answered definitively just as cynics would have guessed. Trump survived impeachment … and within months would prove himself as a still-potent force in Republican politics. His party’s leaders collapsed into alignment with the base’s worldview.
At the same time, optimism about Biden quickly eroded. Less than a year after taking office, Biden’s approval ratings were comparable not to John F. Kennedy’s but to Trump’s own. In the months since, the president’s numbers have not improved.
This sets up a remarkable situation. Not only have Republican candidates won primaries while explicitly advocating the exact dishonest claims from Trump that spurred the Capitol riot — some 100 winning candidates have done so in some form — but they will be entering a general election that’s heavily...
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