In some ways, the 2022 election seemed set up for a repeat of the aftermath of the 2020 election. A flood of GOP-aligned but lower-quality polls suggested the party was in line for big gains, shaping the right’s expectations of a red wave. It was somewhat reminiscent of the “red mirage” that showed Donald Trump ahead early on election night 2020, and which he later baselessly exploited to claim a stolen election.

Then the red wave proved itself to be a mirage, leaving Republicans to search for explanations for another disappointing election.

Thus far, though, the reaction hasn’t been anything on the order of the 2020 “stolen election” fever that gripped the GOP. And given what transpired after 2020, it’s worth asking why.

First, let’s run down what the data shows:

• A recent poll from Quinnipiac University shows 30 percent of Republicans say the results of the 2022 election were not legitimate. That compares to 70 percent of Republicans who agreed with Trump’s false claim that President-elect Joe Biden’s 2020 win was illegitimate. (That number held strong into the 2022 election year.)
• A poll from the Marquette University law school shows 16 percent of Republicans say they’re “not at all confident” that the 2022 votes were accurately cast and counted. That compares to 36 percent in the same poll who said the same about the 2020 election results.
• The Pew Research Center also has a series of applicable findings on this question. Its poll last week showed 53 percent of...

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