Governments mandate outpacing achievement risks labour disruption and legal burdens for auto industry employers
As Canada pushes toward an ambitious 100-per-cent zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales mandate by 2035, a vital question is emerging - are we truly prepared for the labour market shock this transition may bring?
While environmental goals are important, they must be grounded in economic reality, especially for the hundreds of thousands of Canadians whose livelihoods depend on traditional internal combustion engine industries. We examine the implications of this mandate for workers, employers, and the associated legal obligations.
According to the University of Guelph’s economic modelling, if Canada continues with its ZEV mandate, assuming cost parity by 2035, the country could experience a peak loss of over 120,000 jobs nationally during the transition years. While some jobs may be recovered by 2040, the model indicates a prolonged period of net negative employment between 2025 and 2035, a critical time for families and communities already facing affordability struggles.
Ontario is ground zero. As the epicentre of Canada’s auto manufacturing industry, the province stands to absorb the greatest shock from the electric vehicle (EV) transition. Communities like Windsor, Oshawa, Oakville, and Alliston are home to major assembly plants, parts manufacturers, and logistics hubs, many of which are deeply tied to internal combustion engine...
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