Not that long ago, Democrats thought Stacey Abrams was leading Georgia firmly into the blue column. Now, they’re worried. And they should be, not just because she is trailing in her second attempt at becoming the state’s governor, but also because statewide elections in Georgia increasingly hinge on just the slightest moves in the electorate. That will probably be true for years to come in this neither-red-nor-blue state.
Many in the party thought the Democratic trend was clear when Abrams came within 55,000 votes of becoming the nation’s first Black female governor in 2018, and her expansion of the electorate paid off when Joe Biden became the first non-incumbent Democrat to win statewide since 1998. Senate victories by Democrats Raphael G. Warnock and Jon Ossoff in their 2021 runoffs seemed to confirm the bluing of the Peach State.
But now, Abrams’s second gubernatorial campaign is languishing, with polls consistently showing her solidly outside the margin of error, in a rematch with her Republican rival, Gov. Brian Kemp. In between the two elections, her books and speeches attracted a national audience and, significantly for her campaign, a national funding base. That gave Abrams a financial advantage, but Kemp has a perhaps more decisive asset: incumbency. Across the country, and in most offices, incumbents usually succeed unless they get entangled in scandal.
On the campaign trail, Kemp points to Georgia’s record-low unemployment, which he attributes to his decision...
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