Although fears of an immediate escalation were alleviated following the U.S. denial, the clash of claims between the U.S. and Iran persists, leading to expectations of unstable oil prices and volatility. While the weak dollar and falling gold prices act as buffers, rising U.S. Treasury yields and net outflows of the Korean won are constraining the pursuit of risk assets. If tensions ease further, risk appetite in the crypto market is expected to recover; however, if the conflict resurfaces, volatility in the crypto market is projected to increase.

Geopolitical issues are currently in the fact-checking phase, and in the medium term, they are expected to indirectly impact the crypto market through energy prices and global capital flows. While the strong stock market and weak dollar are favorable factors, rising yields and the prevalence of short positions in Bitcoin futures are creating a conflicting dynamic, limiting confidence in the current trend. If diplomatic tensions continue to ease, the crypto market is expected to stabilize gradually; however, if risks in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, defensive...